user retention is rewriting assumptions about event-driven flows

Historically, stretches where user retention leads without support from stablecoin velocity invite sharper reversals.
Ignoring custody rails because miner behavior looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.
Put beside current chatter on “Dinari Promises Anthropic dShares on IPO Day, Including for US Investors,” the incentive problem looks clearer.
Historically, stretches where stablecoin settlement leads without support from cross-exchange spreads invite sharper reversals.
If stablecoin settlement deteriorates while cross-exchange spreads looks fine, the tape often turns defensive first.
Cycles rhyme, but the plumbing underneath keeps changing.
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